Israeli Elections - What's Next?

Yesterday Israelis went to the polls in national elections. At stake were the 120 seats in the Knesset - the Israeli Parliament - and the leadership of the country. The reasons for the early elections were the resignation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert because of political and financial scandals that involved him, and the inability of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni - the successor to the leadership of Olmert's Kadima Party - to form a coalition government.

Israeli politics is fascinating. There are a host of political parties in Israel representing just about every political and theological position imaginable. In yesterday's elections, twelve parties received enough votes to gain seats in the Knesset. And there were other political parties that received no seats in the Knesset. Because it takes a majority of 61 seats to control the Knesset, and with the winning party in yesterday's election - the Kadima Party - receiving only 28 seats, the party leader must woo others into a coalition government. In this case, Tzipi Livni would need to woo 33 other MKs (Member of Knesset) to join with her.

How is this wooing done? It is through the offering of Cabinet-status positions, the two most important being Minister of Defense and Foreign Minister. So, Livni will begin her wooing.

But what made yesterday's election so unique is that, although the Kadima Party won the most seats in the newly to-be-formed Knesset, the runner-up party - Likud, under the leadership of Benyamin Netanyahu - actually is in the stronger position to form a coalition government. The Likud Party is center-right party while the Kadima Party is more a center-left party. And in yesterday's elections, those parties on the right (those holding to more nationalistic, militaristic points of view) won 65 of the 120 Knesset seats. This would make Netanyahu more capable of forming a new government, although his party finished second.

So, what happens next? Israeli President Shimon Peres will visit with all the parties who won seats in yesterday's election. Then he will make the determination as to which party would have the best chance of forming a coalition that could govern all Israel. That decision will come sometime after February 18 when the election results are fully certified. Until then, the wheeling and dealing will take place between Kadima and Livni and Likud and Netanyahu for coalition partners. It should provide some very interesting viewing.

And, underlying all this is the Obama Factor. It is a certainty that Livni is more closely aligned to the Middle East philosophical positions of President Obama than is Netanyahu. How much influence will Washington place upon President Peres remains to be seen, but you can be assured that the pressure will be there.