An Historic Agreement of an Historic Mistake?

Late Saturday evening, an agreement was reached in Geneva between Iran and the P5+1 nations that affected Iran's nuclear program.  (The P5+1 nations are: Britain, France, China, Russia, the United States and Germany).  In the late night hours President Obama went on national television to herald this historic agreement.  The agreement halts Iran's march toward becoming the world's next nuclear power for the next six months.  In return the P5+1 nations agreed to lessen some of the economic sanctions that had been imposed upon Iran. 

The response from America's allies in the Middle East and among our own Congressmen has been less than enthusiastic.  Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has proclaimed this agreement "an historic mistake."  In remarks to his cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu said, "For the first time, the world's leading powers have agreed to uranium enrichment in Iran while ignoring the UN Security Council decisions that they themselves led.  Sanctions that required many years to put in place contain the best chance for a peaceful solution.  These sanctions have been given up in exchange for cosmetic Iranian concessions that can be cancelled in weeks.  Implications of this agreement threaten many countries - including, of course, Israel.  Israel is not bound by this agreement.  What we achieved last night in Geneva is not a historic agreement; it is a historic mistake.  Today the world has become a more dangerous place, because the most dangerous regime in the world took another step towards achieving themost dangerous weapon in the world." (Arutz Sheva, 11/25/13).  Israeli Economics Minster Naftali Bennett said, "We awoke this morning to a new reality.  A reality in which a bad deal was signed with Iran.  A very bad deal.  This bad deal gives Iran exactly what it wanted: a significant easing of the sanctions while retaining the most significant parts of its nuclear program."  He went on to say, "It is important that the world knows: Israel will not be committed to a deal that endangers its  very existence." (Arutz Sheva, 11/25/13).  One would almost expect this type of response from the leaders of Israel.

But the response from the government of Saudi Arabia was hardly different.  Ambassador Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf bin Abdulaziz called the Obama administration's rush to embrace Tehran incomprehensible.  "We are not going to sit idly by and receive a threat there and not think seriously how we can best defend our country and our region." 

Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer of New York released the following statement: "I am disappointed by the terms of the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 nations because it does not seem proportional.  Iran simply freezes its nuclear capabilities while we reduce the sanctions.  It was strong sanctions, not the goodness of the hearts of the Iranian leaders, that brought Iran to the table, and any reduction relieves the psychological pressure of future sanctions and gives them hope that they will be able to gain nuclear weapon capability while further sanctions are reduced.  A fairer agreement would have coupled a reduction in sanctions with a proportionate reduction in Iranian nuclear capability.  The goal of the administration is to eliminate all of Iran's nuclear weapons-making capability by the end of the final negotiations; it is still my hope they can achieve that goal.  As for additional sanctions, this disproportionality of this agreement makes it more likely that Democrats and Republicans will join together and pass additional sanctions when we return in December.  I intend to discuss that possibility with my colleagues." (Newsmax, 11/25/13).

Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz said on Sunday,"I think it could turn out to be a cataclysmic error of gigantic proportions.  It could also turn out to be successful, to be the beginning of a negotiated resolution.  But I think the likelihood of it being the former is considerably greater."  (Newsmax, 11/25/13). 

And that is not all the news coming from the Middle East.  Russia and Egypt are strengthening the ties between those two countries.  "U.S.-Egyptian relations have dropped off substantially since the July 3 coup, and in light of Washington's decision to cut military aid to Cairo in October, there are no signs of improvement." (Stratfor, 11/14/13).  According to the Stratfor article, "reports have emerged that Russia and Egypt are negotiating a considerable military deal, certainly the largest and most important between the countries since the 1970's.  Price estimates for the deal, which reportedly centers primarily on MiG-29 fighter aircraft, air defense missile systems and anti-tank guided missiles, range from $1.5 billion to $4 billion."  The seeming vacuum created by America's decision to not be supportive of the Egyptian military leadership is being filled by a Russian presence, giving them a new foothold into the Middle East region. 

Finally, according to a report the BBC Newsnight, citing multiple sources, the generous financial aid the Saudi Arabian government supplied to Pakistan for its development of a nuclear program, was given as part of an understanding by the two countries that, if and when Saudi Arabia required use of nuclear warheads, the Pakistanis would provide it to them.  The report continued, "Another unnamed source - identified only as a former Pakistani intelligence office, said that in his view 'the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred.'"  Gary Samore, who was President Obama's counter-proliferation adviser until March 2013 said, "I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan." 

Friends, I find this all so intriguing.  America's role in the Middle East is diminishing.  In Egypt, we abandoned our ally in President Mubarak in favor of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.  The Egyptian people came to recognize the direction Morsi was taking his nation and another revolution occurred, yet the American administration has not recognized the legitimacy of Egypt's military leadership, thus creating an opportunity for Russia to come to Egypt's aid.  In Syria, although a "red line" was created by the Obama Administration and crossed by the either the Assad or rebel regimes, America failed to take action.  Once again, it was Russia who stepped into the gap.  Because of the failure to curtail Iran's nuclear ambitions - and, I believe this agreement will only allow the Iranians to placate their people who have been suffering, and once the people's response is lessened, will continue toward their nuclear objectives - the door has been opened for the Saudis to desire their own nuclear arsenal.  And Israel, caught in the middle, is left with little choice but to "go it alone" - something they are willing and capable of doing.  The Saturday night agreement has done very little - it seems to me - to lessen the tensions in the Middle East and have probably ratcheted them up even more. 

Friends, don't be lulled to sleep.  The trumpet will soon be sounding, I believe, and then we will be where we should be.  Then the fireworks here on earth will begin in earnest.