Syria and Egypt - Both Need Watching

Dominating the news these past few days is the continuing deterioration of the civil war in Syria and the ongoing crisis in Egypt.  Personally I am following both stories with great interest; first, because I have studied Middle East history for the past fifteen years and even teach some classes on the History of the Middle East Conflict, and second, because I will be leading a tour to Israel that leaves in seven weeks. 

Let me share about the situation in Syria.  It was a week ago that reports began coming out of Syria concerning a chemical weapons attack that left anywhere from several hundreds of people to over a thousand people killed.  Immediately voices were raised that this was the result of an attack by the Assad regime upon their own people.  Reports of previous chemical attacks had not been verified, but this one was a major incident.  Of course the Assad regime denied any responsibility.  But now the rush to judgment had begun.

Immediately the civilized world condemned the attack and rightfully so.  There is no place for the use of chemical, biological, or even nuclear weapons in an attack upon civilians.  Blame was placed...outrage was expressed...plans for a retaliatory punishment were designed.  Even as I write this blog, American naval forces are moving through the Mediterranean Sea closer to the Syrian coast, preparing for a directive to launch missiles aimed at Assad's military establishment.  Britain, under the leadership of Prime Minister Cameron, has written a resolution declaring a military strike against Syria and will present this to the United Nations Security Council.  The French government has indicated that it will increase its support of arms for the Syrian rebels. 

But even as plans were designed, others focused in a different direction.  The Russians, under President Putin, have consistently stood by the Assad regime and have threatened to veto any UN resolution against Syria - something they have done consistently in the past.  The Iranian government has stated that any attack upon Syria will result in an attack upon Israel.  To quote a senior Syrian official, "If Damascus comes under attack, Tel Aviv will be targeted too and a full-scale war against Syria will actually issue a license for attacking Israel.  Rest assured that if Syria is attacked, Israel will also be set on fire and such an attack will, in turn, engage Syria's neighbors."  Then this Syrian official said words that should remind us of Benghazi.  He warned the United Stated that if Syria grows weak, certain irresponsible groups will be formed that will endanger Israel's security.  The official went on to say, "Therefore, weakening the central government in Damascus will actually start growing attacks on Israel and will create insecurity for that regime.  Thus, a U.S. attack on Syria will herald frequent strikes and attacks on Israel, not just by Damascus and it allies in retaliation, but by extremist groups who will find a ground for staging their aspirations."

There are so many unanswered questions when it comes to Syria.  I get articles from an organization called Stratfor which evaluates what is happening in the world.  They had an interesting article this morning that I want to share portions with you.  "Stratfor's job is to analyze the world as objectively as possible, and the situation in Syria is among the most difficult we have seen.  The problem is we really don't know what happened.  The general consensus is Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered the use of chemical weapons against his enemies. The problem is trying to figure out why he would do it.  He was not losing the civil war.  In fact, he had achieved some limited military success recently.  He knew that U.S. President Obama had said the use of chemical weapons would cross a red line.  Yet Assad did it. 

"Or did he?  Could the rebels have staged the attack in order to draw in an attack on Al-Assad?  Could the pictures have been faked?  Could a third party, hoping to blog the United States down in another way, have done it?  The answers to these questions are important, because they guide the U.S. and its allies' response.  The official explanation could be absolutely true - or not."

I hope we proceed with caution.  I do not like chemical weapons used by any side in a war.  I believe that chemical weapons should be outlawed by the civilized world.  But let's not make the mistake by punishing the wrong people.  Let's do our homework carefully, then make the proper decision.  From my study, things in the Middle East are not as they often seem to us.  And we have no clearer picture of that then to look to Egypt.

Who would have believed that the Muslim Brotherhood would so quickly lose its base of support and power in Egypt?  Now a new constitution is being drafted - I think this is the second or third one in the last few years - that will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a political party to have any type of religious foundation, whether that is Muslim, Coptic, or secular.  The military is firmed established once again in power, although they have promised that it is only temporary.  Hopefully new elections will be called for by early next year.  But, according to reports that I have been reading, analysts do not hold much hope that a better Egypt will result.  Perhaps Egypt will be torn asunder by civil war as has Syria.

And, caught in the middle is the little nation of Israel.  It seems that trouble surround her once again.  Are we on the thresholds of another January 1991 when Saddan Hussein, true to his promises, sent one scud missile after another into Israel as American led coalition forces began what is known as the First Gulf War? 

Friends, I am eternally grateful that our God is on control.  And I believe that we are merely seeing precursors to that day when the King will come.  Aren't you glad you have a hope in Christ?  Aren't you glad for the peace that only He can give.  Our trust is not in governments - praise God!  Our trust is not in armies - praise God!  Our trust is in the Lord!