Rumors of War Are Increasing - What's Next?

Over recent days I have had numerous requests to share my perspective on what is happening in the Middle East. Tensions in that region are mounting, perhaps greater now than they have been since the Second Lebanon War of 2006. War seems to be on the minds of many international leaders and editorials in many newspapers and news magazines around the globe are speculating about not if there will be war, but when.

Let's consider the Syrian situation. The removal of President Assad was dealt a crippling blow last weekend when the Russians and Chinese vetoed a strong United Nations Security Council Resolution demanding that Assad step down from office and allow democratic reforms within Syria. Almost immediately after the veto reports began to circulate of increased violence in Homs and elsewhere with a rising death toll. The Russians and Chinese have shown their hands. They are willing to commit arms and resources to keep the present Syrian regime in power. For the United Nations to authorize any type of military intervention into Syria, like that of NATO into Libya, would be to invite a war against Russian and Chinese military, as well as invite Assad to launch an attack at Israel either directly or through the Syrian proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. I believe the only way Assad will be forced to leave is if there is a mass defection of Syrian soldiers from the military - which seems highly unlikely. Civil War is inevitable unless the Russians and Chinese are persuaded to change their minds.

Now for the escalating rhetoric between Iran and the rest of the world. This week the Iranian parliament's official website published an article that appeared in the Alef News Agency calling on the Iranian government to attack Israel before the end of the year. The target, according to the article, would be the area between Jerusalem and Lod (including Tel Aviv). Last Friday, February 3, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that "Israel is a cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut. ... From now on, in any place, if any nation or any group confronts the Zionist regime, we will endorse and we will help. We have no fear expressing this." Khamenei also had these warnings for the United States: "A war would be 10 times deadlier for the Americans... These threats indicate America's weakness and the Americans need to know that the more threats they make, the more they damage themselves." One Iranian computer engineer stated that Israel could be annihilated in a matter of nine minutes with a coordinated rocket assault.

Also, it has been learned that the Iranians are mass-producing anti-ship cruise missiles. The Zafar missile is capable of destroying both small and medium sized targets with great precision. They can be mounted on speed boats which we know the Iranians use in patrolling the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz. Even more alarming was the docking of an Iranian naval vessel in the Saudi port city of Jeddah over the weekend. The captain stated: "This mission aims to show the power of the Islamic republic of Iran on the open seas and to confront Iranophobia." What makes this so interesting is that relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia have greatly deteriorated over the past year or so.

So will Israel launch a pre-emptive strike upon Iran's nuclear facilities? That is the $64,000 question. It is almost certain that Israel will not sit back and watch Iran continue its pathway toward nuclear warhead production. And Israel's intelligence community knows that Iran is acting quickly to bury their nuclear facilities into deep underground bunkers. When those bunkers are finished the task of removing the nuclear threat through air strikes alone will be significantly decreased. Israeli Defense Ministry Ehud Barak, this past Friday, said: "The world has no doubt that Iran's nuclear program is steadily nearing readiness and is about to enter an immunity zone. If the sanctions don't achieve their goal of halting Iran's nuclear weapons program, there will arise the need of weighing an operation."

A report in the "Washington Post" by columnist David Ignatius stated that US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believed there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June. The United States wants to continue pressing economic sanctions against the Iranian regime. But, according to Ephraim Kam, deputy director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies, "It will take at least six months to see whether sanctions are effective and by then it may be too late." Speaking of the difference between Israeli attitudes and those expressed in Washington, Kam said, "We're definitely using different clocks."

Nicole Gaouette and Jonathan Ferziger, in an article published on the Bloomberg News, quoted an interview with Mahdi Khalaji, an Iranian specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Khalaji said that he doubted that the US or Iran would launch a military strike this year, but cited the possibility that Iran might stage a provocation and use any response as an excuse to launch an asymmetrical attack against US and Israel targets using proxies such as Hezbollah.

So we play the waiting game. Will Israel act without first gaining American permission, or will Israel act first? In the past Israel has been successful when it has been pre-emptive. The 67 Six-Day War is a classic example, while the 73 Yom Kippur War is an example of what happened when they yielded to American pressures and did not act pre-emptively.

Whatever happens we know it will part of God's plan and certainly the Middle East is the centerpiece for that plan.

P.S. For those of you who live in the Des Moines (IA) area, I will be speaking at a Prophecy Conference at Westchester Evangelical Free Church, on Friday night, February 24, Saturday morning, February 25, and Sunday morning, February 26. Among the topics we will be addressing are: Israel and the Land and God's Promises, the Rise of Anti-Christ and the Spirit of the Age, and questions and answers about current news events. Please call Westchester Church for further details.